Britain’s year-and-a-half long recession is set to draw to a close, after figures released earlier this week showed manufacturing was at its most buoyant for two years in December.

Manufacturing activity, as measured by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, reached 54.1 in December, the highest level recorded since November 2007. Any figure over 50 on the scale indicates growth — and the consensus of City economists before the data was released was that December’s figure would be 52.

Manufacturing represents about 15 per cent of the UK economy, and the battered sector has been helped by a recovery in car production, an uptick in exports helped by softness in sterling, and an end to the rundown of stocks. In November, UK car output was ahead by 15.7 per cent, the first increase seen since September 2008.

Malcolm Barr, a JPMorgan economist, said: “Although monthly releases remain choppy, the key orders and output readings are starting to run at levels well above the long-run averages for this survey, consistent with a manufacturing sector which is contributing to an upswing in growth.”

Investec is forecasting that the Office of National Statistics will say that the UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the last quarter of the year, as Britain finally follows France and Germany out of the downturn that began in the second quarter of 2008 in the aftermath of the banking crisis.

The UK job market is continuing its recovery at an accelerating rate, according to Kevin Green, chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. Employer confidence is increasing and the number of vacancies is on the up, with the fastest growth in permanent jobs since July 2007. "Temporary and contract placements also rose at the sharpest pace for thirty months, which underlines the crucial role that flexible working models will play in helping job-seekers back into work," he added.

As we go into 2010 these news items do give us a glimmer of hope that things are getting back to normal. But will these trends continue over the coming months?

Many businesses have not settled down after the Christmas and New Year breaks due to the atrocious weather conditions that have hit the country over recent weeks. The freezing weather has already cost businesses an estimated £690million, and experts fear economic output could be hit by as much as £14billion over the next three weeks if the bad weather continues. Add to that the uncertainty that surrounds the upcoming election and the road to recovery may not be as smooth as some predict.

Could the current spell of bad weather push back our hopes of recovering from the recession or do you think the green shoots of recovery have been firmly planted? And what affect will the upcoming election have on the country’s finances?